EGYPT ON THE BRINK – AT 7:55 A.M. ET:  But the brink of what?  That is the question.  From AP:

CAIRO -- Thousands of Egyptian anti-government protesters clashed Friday with police in Cairo, who fired rubber bullets into the crowds and used tear gas and water cannons to disperse them. It was a major escalation in what was already the biggest challenge to President Hosni Mubarak's 30 year-rule.

Police also used water cannons against Egypt's pro-democracy leader Mohamed ElBaradei and his supporters as they joined the latest wave of protests after noon prayers. Police also used batons to beat some of ElBaradei's supporters, who surrounded him to protect him.

A soaking wet ElBaradei was trapped inside a mosque nearly an hour after him and his supporters were water cannoned. Hundreds of riot police laid siege to the mosque, firing tear gas in the streets surrounding it so no one could leave. The tear gas canisters set several cars ablaze outside the mosque. Several people fainted and suffered burns.

Large groups of protesters, in the thousands, were gathered at at least six venues in Cairo, a city of about 18 million people. They are demanding Mubarak's ouster.

There were smaller protests in Assiut south of Cairo and al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula. Regional television stations were reporting clashes between thousands of demonstrators and police in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria and Minya south of Cairo.

COMMENT:  There is absolutely no guarantee that this will end well.  The history of the Arab world gives us little comfort.  Too often, "popular" uprisings lead to "democratic" elections in which the worst, most backward elements win, elements who rule less intelligently than the thugs they replace.

Consider Gaza, which democratically elected Hamas, an extremist Palestinian movement that has brought nothing good and driven peace further away.

So we sit tight, waiting for the next step.  The images of riots in Cairo are being flashed all over the Arab world, which seethes with discontent.  The example is being set.  There is already unease and some violence in Yemen. 

We cheer democracy, but let us do it while being aware that there was discontent as well in Germany in the late 1920s.  We know where that led.  History does not repeat itself, but the psychology of history does. 

January 28, 2011